Mock Draft #1 (Picks 1-16)

The purpose of all NFL draft websites comes down to analyzation, prediction and mostly guessing as to where the draft prospects will actually end up. With that in mind, NFL Draft Diagnosis presents a look at where each player may end up in the first ever NFL Draft Diagnosis mock draft.

1. Carolina Panthers- Clemson Defensive End Da’Quan Bowers

Panthers fans everywhere thought they would get their next franchise quarterback before Andrew Luck chose to stay in school. Bowers isn’t a bad second prize though with a monster 16 sack season last year at Clemson and will fill the massive void left by Julius Peppers when he defected for Chicago. Look for new defensive minded head coach Ron Rivera to draft his franchise defensive player first overall.

2. Denver Broncos- Auburn Defensive Tackle Nick Fairley

The Broncos have struggled in the defensive front seven the last few seasons and new head coach John Fox plans to shift back to a 4-3 defense next year. Fairley was a beast for National Champion Auburn last season, disrupting opposing rushers and racking up 12 sacks. Fairley could come in and make an immediate impact to rejuvenate a maligned Broncos defense.

3. Buffalo Bills- Missouri Quarterback Blaine Gabbert

There is no clear cut frontrunner for the best quarterback in this draft, but Gabbert seems to be the leading prospect. The Bills, who have not made the playoffs since 1999, have to define who their franchise quarterback will be soon to avoid fan mutiny. Gabbert passed for 40 career touchdowns at Missouri along with 6,822 yards and should be the Bills’ solution at the most important position in football.

4. Cincinnati Bengals- Georgia Wide Receiver A.J. Green

The Bengals will probably lose both Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens this offseason and have a bevy of unproven talent at the wide receiver position with Jordan Shipley, Andre Caldwell, Quan Cosby and Jerome Simpson. Carson Palmer has also demanded a trade from Cincinnati that would set the franchise back for years unless they can nab Green with the fourth pick. Green scored 23 touchdowns in three years at Georgia and would infuse immediate talent and star power into the Bengals pass catching corps.

5. Arizona Cardinals- Texas A&M Outside Linebacker Von Miller

The Cardinals struggled with underperforming veterans at the linebacker position last year and need quality players in their 3-4 system. Miller dominated for the Aggies, with 28 sacks in the last two seasons alone and 178 tackles in his four year collegiate career. The Cardinals desperately need a quarterback but look for them to sign or trade for a short-term veteran answer and take Miller.

6. Cleveland Browns- Alabama Defensive Tackle Marcell Dareus

The Browns released nose tackle Shaun Rogers earlier this week and are in need of an inside presence for their defense. Dareus could step right in and contribute, coming from a stellar Alabama defense and 11 sacks in the last two seasons for the Crimson Tide.

7. San Francisco 49ers- LSU Cornerback Patrick Peterson

The 49ers would be elated to grab Peterson at this spot to replace aging and overpaid veteran, Nate Clements. Peterson only had seven interceptions as an LSU Tiger, but that stat is a product of no one throwing his way. He also racked up 135 career tackles, a rarity for a position that usually shies away from contact and is a threat in the return game, scoring two touchdowns in 2010.

8. Tennessee Titans- North Carolina Defensive End Robert Quinn

The Titans are set to lose Jason Babin and Dave Ball at this position if free agency occurs this offseason and Quinn could come in and contribute immediately. Despite being suspended last season by the NCAA for reportedly receiving improper benefits, Quinn had 11 sacks and two forced fumbles in 2009 and could be an answer for a Titans team that always seems to draft defensive line depth.

9. Dallas Cowboys- Boston College Offensive Tackle Anthony Castonzo

The Cowboys struggled in pass protection and run blocking at both tackle positions last season, including one missed block that led to a broken collarbone for franchise cornerstone Tony Romo against the Giants, effectively ending Dallas’ season. Castonzo started three seasons at left tackle for Boston College and is listed at 6-7, 308 pounds. This pick would solidify the Cowboys offensive line for a decade and would allow them to run the ball more effectively with Felix Jones and Marion Barber.

10. Washington Redskins- Auburn Quarterback Cam Newton

The Redskins took an ill-advised chance on veteran Donovan McNabb last season that became a year long soap opera with little positive results. Newton is a physical specimen who willed the Tigers to a National Championship last season and can beat defenses with his arm or legs. After scoring 50 touchdowns in one season as a starter, Snyder will look past Newton’s college scandals and take a chance on the electric quarterback.

11. Houston Texans- Nebraska Cornerback Prince Amukamura

The Texans secondary was embarrassing last season, ranking dead last in giving up 267.5 yards per game through the air. Amukamara had five interceptions and 155 tackles at Nebraska in a four year career and could fill the void left by Dunta Robinson when he left for Atlanta in free agency. The Texans hired defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to get them over the playoff hump for the first time ever and Amukamara could be the another building block for a struggling Houston defense.

12. Minnesota Vikings- Washington Quarterback Jake Locker

Locker had terrible accuracy in college, but was a four year starter and is incredibly athletic with a cannon arm and the ability to scramble. Minnesota was hung out to dry last year when Brett Favre showed his age and suffered a wave of injuries. The Vikings were then left with Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb as starting options, destroying any chance of a playoff berth. The Vikings have stated the need for a quarterback this offseason and Locker could be the franchise’s building block if a quarterback coach works closely with him to improve his accuracy.

13. Detroit Lions- Colorado Offensive Tackle Nate Solder

The Lions are finally emerging from the doldrums of the NFC North, but need better pass protection for their fragile franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford. Solder would shore up the line with his 6-8, 314 pound frame and was impressive at the Senior Bowl. Look for the Lions to take their left tackle for the next decade in Solder this April.

14. St. Louis Rams- Alabama Wide Receiver Julio Jones

The Rams began to emerge in 201o as a legitimate playoff contender in the lowly NFC West on the arm of Sam Bradford and legs of Steven Jackson, but lacked any kind of pass catching threat all season. Danny Amendola is a great slot receiver and Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery may come back successfully from injury, but Jones could be special and is a consistent pick in most mock drafts for the Rams. At 6-4, Jones will be a physical, big target for Bradford in 2011 and beyond.

15. Miami Dolphins- Alabama Running Back Mark Ingram

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams aren’t getting any younger and both are  free agents this year. The Dolphins learned they can’t rely on Chad Henne to win games, so the logical pick is to take the 2009 Heisman winner, who rushed for 42 touchdowns and 3,261 yards for the Crimson Tide. Ingram will bring a physical running style and will help the Dolphins when they have to travel to New England, New York and Buffalo during the winter months of the season.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars- Purdue Defensive End Ryan Kerrigan

The Jaguars will continue attempting to improve their defensive line by drafting the player they thought they were getting when they spent a pick on Derrick Harvey in 2008. Kerrigan was impressive at Purdue, racking up 33 sacks, 210 tackles and four forced fumbles and should help the Jaguars pressure Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub along with last year’s first round pick, Tyson Alualu.

Franchise Quarterback Formula

Last year, Sports Illustrated contributor John Lopez wrote an article summarizing the 26-27-60 formula to determine if college quarterbacks will translate into successful NFL starters.

Barring some exceptions, the formula is based on college quarterbacks scoring at least a 26 on the Wonderlic intelligence test at the combine, starting 27 games and completing at least 60 percent of their passes in college. Lopez’ theory is a surprisingly accurate yardstick of the difference between quarterbacks becoming franchise faces or flops.

Using Lopez’ theory minus Wonderlic scores that won’t be available until April, here is a look at how the top five projected quarterbacks in the 2011 draft may fare after they begin their NFL careers:

1. Blaine Gabbert, Junior QB Missouri

• Strengths: Gabbert has the size (6-foot-5) and intelligence to succeed at the next level. He also has a good arm and will be able to make most of the throws against NFL defenses.
• Weaknesses: Gabbert may be the product of hype and a weak “elite” quarterback class after Stanford’s Andrew Luck chose to stay in school. Scouts are also worried about transitioning from Missouri’s spread offense to the pro style NFL game if he is rushed into a starting role.
• Starts: Gabbert started 26 games from 2009 to 2010 and played spot duty in 2008 behind Chase Daniel in three games, leaving him one game short of the formula requirement.
• Stats: His completion percentage from his two years as a full time starter average at 61.2 percent, along with 6,822 yards and 40 touchdowns in his career at Missouri.
• Conclusion: After his Wonderlic score is calculated, it seems like Gabbert will become a solid NFL starter and has the potential to develop into a star based on Lopez’ theory. However, he will have to adjust quickly to a team that will likely expect him to play early if he is the first quarterback taken in the draft.

2. Ryan Mallett, Junior QB Arkansas

• Strengths: Mallett has a large frame (listed at 6-foot-6) and has a great arm. He was a winner in the perennially tough SEC and will have the strength to stay upright in the pocket while avoiding hits.
• Weaknesses: Mallett’s body type also raises questions of his durability and he can look clumsy at times. Scouts are also concerned with his decision making, as he throws off his back foot under pressure and occasionally makes bad decisions with the ball. Some are also concerned with his attitude and maturity, as he was never selected to be a captain as a Razorback.
• Starts: He started 26 games while at Arkansas and played in several games while at Michigan in 2007. Mallett led the Razorbacks to a 10 win season in 2010 and a berth in the Sugar Bowl.
• Stats: He also completed an average of 60.2 percent of his passes throughout his collegiate career while tossing 62 touchdown passes as a Razorback.
• Conclusion: Mallett projects as a good NFL starter if he can avoid injuries and use his size to his advantage. He will also have to convince teams during the evaluation process that he is mature and can handle NFL responsibilities.

3. Jake Locker, Senior QB Washington

• Strengths: Teams are enamored with Locker’s athletic ability, as he has a cannon arm and can scramble to make plays with his feet. He has typical NFL size (6-foot-3) and has extensive experience in Steve Sarkisian’s pro style offense at Washington.
• Weaknesses: Locker’s draft stock plummeted after he chose to stay in college for his senior season instead of leaving for the draft as a junior. He was plagued with accuracy issues all year including a horrendous performance against Nebraska and never cracked the 60 percent completion rate with the Huskies.
• Starts: Locker started 40 games at Washington despite missing most of his sophomore year with injuries, meeting Lopez’ requirement and ranking among the most seasoned quarterbacks in the draft.
• Stats: He only managed an average 53.7 percent completion rate with the Huskies while only winning 15 games over four years, including a winless Huskies season in 2008 when Locker sustained a season-ending injury.
• Conclusion: Locker has the physical skills to become a good NFL starter with the right coaching but his accuracy problems may scare several teams away in the draft. He will have to get the most out of his athleticism and work to improve his accuracy every chance he gets.

4. Cam Newton, Junior QB Auburn

• Strengths: Newton is charismatic, athletic and has the leadership qualities to become a franchise NFL quarterback. He is also very athletic and can beat defenses with his arm or his legs while showing the ability to carry his team and come back in several games this season.
• Weaknesses: Newton only started one season at Auburn after bouncing around through several schools. He is also a polarizing figure after enduring several scandals at Auburn, leaving scouts to question his maturity and problems off the field. Some believe he could turn out to be a one-season wonder and will have a tough time adjusting to reading NFL coverages and defenses.
• Starts: He only started 14 games at Auburn but managed to go undefeated in the gauntlet of the SEC while winning the 2010 BCS National Championship.
• Stats: Newton had a 66.1 percent completion percentage in 2010 while scoring 50 touchdowns rushing and passing at Auburn.
• Conclusion: Newton passes the completion section of Lopez’ test but it will be interesting to see how his lack of starting experience and his pending Wonderlic scores contribute to his draft stock and NFL future. Newton will be more of a project and should be eased into a starting roll to maximize his ability to learn the pro game.

5. Ricky Stanzi, Senior QB Iowa

• Strengths: Stanzi looks the part of an NFL quarterback at 6-foot-4 and is regarded as an intelligent passer who understands the game.
• Weaknesses: Stanzi was more of a game manager at Iowa and made questionable decisions occasionally with the ball.
• Starts: He started three seasons and 37 games at Iowa, including three bowl births.
• Stats: Stanzi had a 59.8 completion percentage while passing for 56 touchdowns as a Hawkeye.
• Conclusion: Stanzi passes the starts requirement for Lopez’ theory and is just short of the completion percentage. With the jury out on his upcoming Wonderlic test, Stanzi projects as more of a middle-to-low-end starter in the NFL who would probably be better as a back-up for a season or two to develop.