Franchise Quarterback Formula

Last year, Sports Illustrated contributor John Lopez wrote an article summarizing the 26-27-60 formula to determine if college quarterbacks will translate into successful NFL starters.

Barring some exceptions, the formula is based on college quarterbacks scoring at least a 26 on the Wonderlic intelligence test at the combine, starting 27 games and completing at least 60 percent of their passes in college. Lopez’ theory is a surprisingly accurate yardstick of the difference between quarterbacks becoming franchise faces or flops.

Using Lopez’ theory minus Wonderlic scores that won’t be available until April, here is a look at how the top five projected quarterbacks in the 2011 draft may fare after they begin their NFL careers:

1. Blaine Gabbert, Junior QB Missouri

• Strengths: Gabbert has the size (6-foot-5) and intelligence to succeed at the next level. He also has a good arm and will be able to make most of the throws against NFL defenses.
• Weaknesses: Gabbert may be the product of hype and a weak “elite” quarterback class after Stanford’s Andrew Luck chose to stay in school. Scouts are also worried about transitioning from Missouri’s spread offense to the pro style NFL game if he is rushed into a starting role.
• Starts: Gabbert started 26 games from 2009 to 2010 and played spot duty in 2008 behind Chase Daniel in three games, leaving him one game short of the formula requirement.
• Stats: His completion percentage from his two years as a full time starter average at 61.2 percent, along with 6,822 yards and 40 touchdowns in his career at Missouri.
• Conclusion: After his Wonderlic score is calculated, it seems like Gabbert will become a solid NFL starter and has the potential to develop into a star based on Lopez’ theory. However, he will have to adjust quickly to a team that will likely expect him to play early if he is the first quarterback taken in the draft.

2. Ryan Mallett, Junior QB Arkansas

• Strengths: Mallett has a large frame (listed at 6-foot-6) and has a great arm. He was a winner in the perennially tough SEC and will have the strength to stay upright in the pocket while avoiding hits.
• Weaknesses: Mallett’s body type also raises questions of his durability and he can look clumsy at times. Scouts are also concerned with his decision making, as he throws off his back foot under pressure and occasionally makes bad decisions with the ball. Some are also concerned with his attitude and maturity, as he was never selected to be a captain as a Razorback.
• Starts: He started 26 games while at Arkansas and played in several games while at Michigan in 2007. Mallett led the Razorbacks to a 10 win season in 2010 and a berth in the Sugar Bowl.
• Stats: He also completed an average of 60.2 percent of his passes throughout his collegiate career while tossing 62 touchdown passes as a Razorback.
• Conclusion: Mallett projects as a good NFL starter if he can avoid injuries and use his size to his advantage. He will also have to convince teams during the evaluation process that he is mature and can handle NFL responsibilities.

3. Jake Locker, Senior QB Washington

• Strengths: Teams are enamored with Locker’s athletic ability, as he has a cannon arm and can scramble to make plays with his feet. He has typical NFL size (6-foot-3) and has extensive experience in Steve Sarkisian’s pro style offense at Washington.
• Weaknesses: Locker’s draft stock plummeted after he chose to stay in college for his senior season instead of leaving for the draft as a junior. He was plagued with accuracy issues all year including a horrendous performance against Nebraska and never cracked the 60 percent completion rate with the Huskies.
• Starts: Locker started 40 games at Washington despite missing most of his sophomore year with injuries, meeting Lopez’ requirement and ranking among the most seasoned quarterbacks in the draft.
• Stats: He only managed an average 53.7 percent completion rate with the Huskies while only winning 15 games over four years, including a winless Huskies season in 2008 when Locker sustained a season-ending injury.
• Conclusion: Locker has the physical skills to become a good NFL starter with the right coaching but his accuracy problems may scare several teams away in the draft. He will have to get the most out of his athleticism and work to improve his accuracy every chance he gets.

4. Cam Newton, Junior QB Auburn

• Strengths: Newton is charismatic, athletic and has the leadership qualities to become a franchise NFL quarterback. He is also very athletic and can beat defenses with his arm or his legs while showing the ability to carry his team and come back in several games this season.
• Weaknesses: Newton only started one season at Auburn after bouncing around through several schools. He is also a polarizing figure after enduring several scandals at Auburn, leaving scouts to question his maturity and problems off the field. Some believe he could turn out to be a one-season wonder and will have a tough time adjusting to reading NFL coverages and defenses.
• Starts: He only started 14 games at Auburn but managed to go undefeated in the gauntlet of the SEC while winning the 2010 BCS National Championship.
• Stats: Newton had a 66.1 percent completion percentage in 2010 while scoring 50 touchdowns rushing and passing at Auburn.
• Conclusion: Newton passes the completion section of Lopez’ test but it will be interesting to see how his lack of starting experience and his pending Wonderlic scores contribute to his draft stock and NFL future. Newton will be more of a project and should be eased into a starting roll to maximize his ability to learn the pro game.

5. Ricky Stanzi, Senior QB Iowa

• Strengths: Stanzi looks the part of an NFL quarterback at 6-foot-4 and is regarded as an intelligent passer who understands the game.
• Weaknesses: Stanzi was more of a game manager at Iowa and made questionable decisions occasionally with the ball.
• Starts: He started three seasons and 37 games at Iowa, including three bowl births.
• Stats: Stanzi had a 59.8 completion percentage while passing for 56 touchdowns as a Hawkeye.
• Conclusion: Stanzi passes the starts requirement for Lopez’ theory and is just short of the completion percentage. With the jury out on his upcoming Wonderlic test, Stanzi projects as more of a middle-to-low-end starter in the NFL who would probably be better as a back-up for a season or two to develop.